Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
